Minor League Barometer: Arriving Prospects

The inaugural Minor League Barometer for 2016 will look at those prospects expected to impact their respective major league clubs this year. This is not a list of the top prospects in baseball, nor is there any sort of rhyme, reason or order. In addition, it is impossible to hit on every phenom with a chance at impacting a big league roster in 2016. In future Barometers, we will dive deeper into the recesses of the minor league levels to pluck hidden gems or find the next great, under-the-radar star. However, for the purposes of this week's article, the bigger, more notable names will come into focus.

Let's see who is primed to make a splash this season out of the minors.

UPGRADE

Byron Buxton, OF, MIN - The keys to center field will finally be given to Buxton, arguably the top prospect in baseball for the last 2-3 years. It has not been all sunshine and rainbows for the 22-year-old, though. His 2014 season was derailed by an assortment of maladies, most notably wrist injuries. Buxton hit just .240/.307/.395 with four home runs, 16 RBI and six steals in 31 games, mostly with High-A Fort Myers. He fought back in 2015 and eventually climbed all the way to the bigs, only to hit a putrid .209 in 46 games with the Twins. Perhaps most disconcerting was the fact that he fanned 44 times in 46 games, while drawing just six walks. Minnesota is certain that Buxton no longer looks overmatched and overwhelmed at the plate, though his .225 average this spring speaks otherwise. Still, he is a five-tool talent who will receive everyday at-bats starting on Opening Day. His upside is simply tantalizing.

Corey Seager, SS, LAD - If Buxton isn't the top prospect in baseball, then that nod goes to Seager, who will start at shortstop for the Dodgers on Opening Day. Seager found little resistance throughout his time in the minors, and even impressed during his cup of coffee with the big club in 2015. In 28 games in the City of Angels, Seager slashed .337/.425/.561 with four home runs, 17 RBI and two steals. Seager had almost as many walks (14) as strikeouts (19). With superb plate discipline, exceptional eye-hand coordination and power to boot, Seager is a star in the making. There is no reason to think he won't be one of the better shortstops in the National League this season.

Trevor Story, SS, COL - Even though the Rockies finally jettisoned Troy Tulowitzki last season, they drafted another shortstop in Brendan Rodgers with the No. 2 pick. In addition, it was not a foregone conclusion that Story would become the starting shortstop, as he had to battle Cristhian Adames for the job this spring. It did not turn out to be much of a competition, though, as Story hit .340 with six home runs to snatch the starting slot. A high draft pick in 2011, Story suffered through a horrific 2013 campaign that nearly left him off the prospect map entirely. However, he had a decent campaign in 2014 with 14 home runs and 23 stolen bases, then smacked 20 home runs and stole 22 bases between Double-A and Triple-A last year. The thin air in Colorado certainly helps his cause, and the Rockies likely will not mind if he strikes out a bit too much. After all, Tulo fanned 114 times in 128 games in 2015. Story will be a chic fantasy sleeper this season.

Tyler Glasnow, P, PIT - If I had to make an educated guess about which elite pitching prospect came up to the big leagues first, my pick would be Glasnow, though Jose Berrios of the Twins is a close second. Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco and Tyler Duffey don't exactly evoke much confidence at this point at the back end of the Minnesota rotation. The rationale for why it may not be Julio Urias or Lucas Giolito will be explored in further depth below. Minor League Pitcher of the Year Blake Snell pitches for the Tampa Bay Rays, a team notoriously patient with its prospects, or frugal, depending on your view. Although he tossed 44.1 innings at Triple-A last season and posted a 1.83 ERA and 57:13 K:BB ratio, the Rays will almost certainly wait to start his Arbitration clock. Thus, the case for Glasnow becomes stronger. Glasnow fanned 136 batters in 109.1 innings last season, mostly between Double-A and Triple-A. Glasnow's control was surprisingly good for his 6-foot-8 frame, though he did have a bit of trouble finding the plate this spring. Still, the back end of the Pirates rotation is marked with significant questions, including whether Jeff Locke can keep runners off base and whether Juan Nicasio's absurd spring was a mirage or a sign of things to come. In other words, if Glasnow continues to dominate at Triple-A, the contending Pirates might have no choice but to promote him.

CHECK STATUS

Julio Urias, P, LAD - Urias took the minor leagues by storm the last few seasons. At just 19, the southpaw has already staked a claim as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Comparisons to a teenaged Fernando Valenzuela are easy to make. He pitched at four levels in 2015, reaching Triple-A before his season closed. Urias posted a 3.81 ERA and 88:22 K:BB ratio in 80.1 innings. However, the reasons for Urias to stay at Triple-A this season despite his incredible success during his brief professional career are plentiful. For starters, he has pitched just 72.2 innings above A-ball, including only two starts at Triple-A. Second, he has never pitched more than 87.2 innings in a single season. As a result, it is almost certain he will have an innings limit in 2016. Last, the Dodgers have a plethora of veteran starters that will begin the year on the disabled list but should come back at various points during the season. Add the presence of other older prospects in Jose De Leon and Zach Lee, and there does not appear any reason for the Dodgers to rush Urias to the bigs. Of course, Urias likely has the most talent of any Dodger pitcher outside of Clayton Kershaw, but with the Dodgers' depth and Urias having yet to pitch 100 innings in a season, the likelihood of a big impact in 2016 is limited.

Lucas Giolito, P, WAS - A prospective innings limit is also the main reason as to why Giolito may not make a splash in 2016. Giolito is a bit further along than Urias in terms of innings; the 21-year-old pitched 98 innings in 2014 and 117 innings in 2015, as he continues to also make his way back from Tommy John surgery. Although Giolito is a bit older and a bit more stretched out than Urias, he has never pitched above Double-A. Like the Dodgers, the Nationals also have a rather above-average starting rotation, including the likes of Max Scherzer, Joe Ross, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg. Speaking of Strasburg, the last item to note regarding Giolito is that the Nats stuck to a rigid innings limit for Strasburg during the 2012 season, even though the team made the playoffs and could have certainly used his services during the division series loss to the Cardinals. It is likely that the Nats would make the same decision regarding Giolito, even if he is promoted to the big leagues and pitches like a man possessed.

A.J. Reed, 1B, HOU - Reed will start the season in the minors, but his stay there may not last long. Reed destroyed the competition between High-A and Double-A in 2015, hitting .340/.432/.612 with 34 home runs and 127 RBI in 135 games. His hot hitting spilled into spring training, as Reed batted .311 with three home runs and nine RBI. In a bit of a surprise, Tyler White won the starting first base job for the 'Stros, hitting .353 with a .443 OBP this spring. The 25-year-old White also hit three home runs, while driving in 12 runs. Never playing above Double-A likely hurt Reed's chances, but give White credit for snatching the job away from Jonathan Singleton. Still, it remains to be seen if White, a 2013 33rd-round pick, will actually be able to hold down the first base job on a team with World Series aspirations. Reed has mammoth power and a much higher upside. The 22-year-old lefty should be the starter at first sooner than later.

Trea Turner, SS, WAS - Turner won't start the season in the majors, but realistically, how long will the Nationals go with the combination of Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew at shortstop? Ian Desmond left via free agency, leaving a gaping hole on the left side of the infield. Turner only hit .244 in spring, though he did swipe eight bases. Turner was simply sensational in 2015, slashing .322/.378/.458 between Double-A and Triple-A. Over 116 games, he had eight home runs, 54 RBI and 29 thefts. He is clearly the shortstop of the future for Washington. Espinosa will start at short, but has only been a part-time player most of his career. Meanwhile, Drew hasn't hit above .200 combined the last two seasons. If Turner gets off to a hot start at Triple-A, the Nats are going to have a hard time keeping him down at Triple-A.

DOWNGRADE

Tyler Naquin, OF, CLE - This has nothing to do with Naquin's spring, as he hit a blistering .476 with three home runs and five RBI in 42 at-bats to make the Indians roster. However, he probably would not have made the squad if Abraham Almonte had not been suspended 80 games for taking performance-enhancing drugs. Michael Brantley is also dinged up, furthering Naquin's opportunity to find a spot in the outfield. While Naquin has taken full advantage of the circumstances, his minor league numbers do not suggest that he will be much of a fantasy dynamo in the big leagues. Naquin has never hit more than 10 home runs in a single season. He has never stolen more than 15 bases in a season. Also, he has played more than 100 games in a single season just once since being drafted in 2012. This penchant for injuries also makes him a risky proposition. In addition, fellow Cleveland outfield phenoms Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier are considered much better future prospects. While Naquin slides into the starting center field slot on Opening Day for the Tribe, it would be unwise to be reliant upon him from a fantasy perspective.

Albert Almora, OF, CHC - Almora is the type of player who likely will be a better actual player than fantasy contributor. He is a glove-first outfielder who has never hit more than nine home runs in a season and never swiped more than eight bags in a single year since entering the minors in 2012. He has shown the ability to make consistent contact and hit for average, though he has only hit a combined .271 over the last two seasons between High-A and Double-A. Likewise, the Cubs have a surplus of young outfielders at this point in time. The 2012 first-round selection remains a top 10 prospect in the Chicago farm system, but that is also due to the recent ascension to the majors of many elite prospects such as Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant and Addison Russell. In sum, Almora's upside from a fantasy perspective is limited.

Jon Gray, P, COL - Colorado pitching prospects are always a risky proposition. The flame-throwing Gray finally reached the big leagues in 2015, and while his strikeout stuff was evident, his limited debut was not a rousing success overall. Gray posted a 5.53 ERA in 40.2 innings with the big club. He allowed entirely too many base runners en route to a bloated 1.62 WHIP. Unfortunately, playing his home games in Colorado will always downgrade Gray a notch or two on the prospect scale. Lastly, Gray will begin the 2016 season on the disabled list due to an abdominal strain. The upside is there, but Gray will have to work through not only an injury but also the elements if he is to succeed in less-than-ideal circumstances.

Gary Sanchez, C, NYY - Sanchez was supposed to battle Austin Romine for the backup catcher job, but had a horrific spring at the plate and will instead begin the year in Triple-A. Everyday at-bats may be better for Sanchez, though his future spot with the Yankees remains tenuous. That's because Brian McCann continues to lock down the starting catching position for the Bronx Bombers, and the 32-year-old is coming off his best season in terms of power production. McCann set a career high with 26 home runs in 2015, while tying his career high of 94 RBI, which he set in 2009 with the Atlanta Braves. While the decline for catchers can be quick and steep, McCann is under contract until 2018, with a vesting option for the 2019 campaign. In other words, even if the 23-year-old Sanchez crushes the ball to begin the year, there is no place for him to play, barring injury. And the extremely durable McCann has played at least 100 games in 10 consecutive seasons.