Mound Musings: Shooting Stars

You Got to Know When to Fold em'

It's May, so we're a full month into the 2016 season. Most starting pitchers have made five or six starts, some are performing more or less as expected, some have struggled — we talked about a few of those last week — but there are also a few who have surprised everybody with unforeseen results; pitching like aces and causing heads to shake throughout the fantasy world. Do you own any of these shooting stars? Have you been tempted to grab one off the waiver wire or even swing a trade for one? Just be cautious. What you see, may not be what you get over time. Let's take a look at why some of these guys just don't make it happen over the long haul …

From Good, to Bad, to Ugly. Why?

Even poor pitchers have good days. Those are pretty easy to avoid. If he has a track record of train wrecks, that career-best start probably won't fool you. Even two or three strong outings typically only result in some talk and casual monitoring of future performance. By the time most fantasy owners are tempted to take the plunge, the pitcher in question has turned back into a toad.

But, what about that guy with little or no track record? It's not all that uncommon for a relatively unknown hurler to be called up to the majors and pitch well in his first few starts with the parent club. Is he the real thing? At least you could justify jumping on the bandwagon with a highly publicized blue chip prospect, but who's this guy?

To make it even more challenging, the pitcher with less obvious credentials could actually be more likely to pitch well in those early starts. At face value that sounds a bit counterintuitive. You would expect the pitcher with better tools to have a better chance of getting out of the blocks in good shape, but it doesn't always work that way. There are well over 1,000 pitchers in pro baseball. The guys with the 98 mph fastball and wipeout slider are well documented. Every scout in the game has seen them over and over again. However, that 12th round draft pick with an 89 mph fastball and a "funky" delivery isn't a favorite topic of conversation. There isn't much of a book on him, and it's going to take a while for hitters to get a good feel for what he has.

Let's take a look at some pitchers who have already arrived, and may or may not be worth a fantasy flyer. If you own one of these ticking time bombs, the "sell high" window may be wide open, but it could close abruptly if you don't start working the phones right away. But, have faith, sometimes a guy bursts upon the scene with the talent to help your fantasy rotation, our job is to uncover the good from the bad and the ugly.

A few early season arrivals with my observations (in no special order):

• Brandon Finnegan (Reds) – One of my favorite youngsters getting a regular turn in an MLB rotation, Finnegan has plenty of talent, but he also needs to hone his command and become more consistent with his off-speed stuff. That will be a common theme among even the best of this bunch. He'll be risky, with some great starts, and others where his pitch count rises and the start ends up short.

• Michael Fulmer (Tigers) – The Tigers are notorious for throwing their better pitching prospects into the fire. Fulmer has a power arm (mid-90s fastball), and he complements that with a pretty nice slider, but the menu shrinks after that. He's still a two-pitch pitcher with a lack of any consistent off-speed pitch and that makes him far better suited for bullpen work. I'll pass, at least for now.

• Jose Berrios (Twins) – Berrios is at the top of the class with this group. Unlike most of the others, he's the complete package with the tools to make it at the top level either now or fairly soon. He has the power arm – (93-96 mph) – but he also has a solid changeup. He just needs to throw everything for strikes. His command is improving, but he's one to grab now and hope for the best.

• Nick Tropeano (Angels) – He's filled in as a rotation substitute for the past couple of years, and his numbers haven't been terrible. That said, his command frequently impacts how deep he can get into each start, and he might even be better suited to long relief work. The Angels rotation is thin, so he could keep taking turns, but his high WHIP probably won't help your fantasy team.

• Tim Adleman (Reds) – The Reds' rotation is a train wreck, especially now that they have lost Raisel Iglesias. Homer Bailey has suffered a setback in his rehab – hopefully minor – so the Reds will continue the parade of mediocre prospects like Adleman and Jon Moscot in order to save the majority of their top pitching prospects until later in the season. Wait for the real talent to arrive.

• Chris Devenski (Astros) – He was a doing a respectable job in the bullpen and has been pressed into duty as a placeholder starter until Lance McCullers returns from the disabled list. The good news is he won't be overexposed, as McCullers is due back soon, but his pedestrian stuff is better suited to relief work. He generally throws strikes – a positive – but his fantasy upside is pretty limited.

• Cesar Vargas (Padres) – The prototypical unknown soldier who comes up to fill a temporary home in a rotation, Vargas has very limited upside. He has made a couple of decent starts (despite allowing a lot of walks), but his high 80s fastball isn't going to protect him forever when he fills the bases with runners. Padres' pitchers always get some attention, but stay away this time.

• Ross Stripling (Dodgers) – If I had written this article a couple of weeks ago after a pair of strong starts, I could have included an animated .gif with a bold WARNING. Actually, I did mention in a previous column that it wouldn't last. It didn't, and I'm guessing his appeal has faded, but just in case, I'll put him on the "don't chase this guy" ballot.

• Sean Manaea (A's) – Tough call here. He has a high ceiling, but injuries and inconsistency have slowed his progress. He lacks reliable command with his off-speed stuff, and that leads to over-reliance on his good fastball when he gets behind in the count (over 90%). I like him better for keeper leagues, but he could be a nice add later in the season if he settles in.
  

• I wanted to include Alex Meyer of the Twins on the above list. I love his stuff. He made his first start Tuesday, and the first two innings looked great. Unfortunately, he lost his release point (and his confidence) in the third, and the start fell apart. If he can ever put it all together he could be a dominant force. I'll keep watching.
  
• Don't look now, but Adam Wainwright is getting everything back in synch. He still missed out over the plate a few times in his last start, but the consistency of hitting his spots was evident. Wainwright will be back to his "ace" status, and I think it will be sooner rather than later. The guy is pure pro.
  
• There is no guarantee that Joe Kelly will be in the rotation when he returns – he's getting close – but the Red Sox need him to perform like he can. I see a lot of positives in him despite the awful beginning to the season he experienced. A balky shoulder is worrisome, but I think I would take a flyer on him.
  
• Atlanta's Matt Wisler turned in a gem against the Mets earlier this week. He has a wicked slider and changes speeds exceptionally well – better than his very low strikeout rate would suggest. The Braves aren't too good, and the lack of strikeouts hurts his ability to get out of jams, but he could help in deep leagues.
  
• For those who might have been concerned about Corey Kluber, I think you can rest easy. He's now allowed just three runs in his last 24 innings, including a complete game, five-hit shutout against the Tigers in his last outing. Kluber has always been a rhythm pitcher, and he's in a very good one right now.
  
• Right at the top of my current enigma list is Arizona's Rubby De La Rosa. I watched his last couple of starts after he really struggled early on and everything was crisp and to his target. I loved the slider and he buried it again and again. Then, against Miami, he was up too often, and nothing was really sharp.
  

Okay, Jeanmar Gomez has nine saves. I'm not sure if that's more surprising than the Phillies being in contention in the NL East, but I still don't expect either to last. It looks like Hector Neris could be putting himself in position to get an audition at some point. One guy who has impressed me with his effectiveness is Steve Cishek in Seattle. He looks more confident all the time, and those who at some point might challenge him for the gig are hitting the disabled list. He appears to be locked in. Moving to the Hudson watch, Brad Ziegler's armor is beginning to show weaknesses. Again, if you have the roster space, Daniel Hudson would be a good add and stash right now. A lot of fantasy owners were understandably hesitant to make Fernando Rodney one of their closers, but he has actually done a pretty good job. He still makes things interesting at times, but he has a firm hold on the job in San Diego today. The eternally injured Huston Street has made his annual trip to the disabled list with a strained oblique. It's not considered serious, but he'll take a break while the unexciting, but generally reliable, Joe Smith fills in. The Yankees will soon need to make room for Aroldis Chapman in their bullpen. He's eligible to return from suspension in just a few days (May 9). He'll likely take over the closing from Andrew Miller, but it's sure not Miller's fault.