Mound Musings: Quantum Leap

Taking a spin in the time machine

A big part of achieving fantasy baseball success, especially in keeper and dynasty leagues, is projecting the full-blown arrival of star players. Most of today's star pitchers experienced some tough times prior to getting everything together and reaching their true potential. If you acquired that pitcher at a pre-star price, and owned him during his breakout season, you did well, and if you owned several contributing players in similar circumstances, you may well have won a league title.

This week, I'd like to jump into our DeLorean, goose the flux capacitor and jump ahead two years to mid-2018. We're looking for the top performing pitchers of that season. Some will be stars who are reaching the pinnacle of success, some will be longtime top performers, and a few might be surprises who chose 2018 to make their splash. And, you'll want to make note of current stars whose names are missing from the list. We'll visit the National League this week, and the American League next week.

Let's take a look at my list of National League pitchers to own in 2018:

The top pitchers in the National League - 2018:

1. Noah Syndergaard (Mets) – Thor is a beast. Some elbow issues made almost everyone nervous earlier, but he simply shook it off, piled up innings, and got stronger. His fastball is overwhelming, now averaging nearly 99 mph, and his secondary pitches are quality offerings he can throw for strikes any time. That's a recipe for success that never gets replaced.

2. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) – The perennial top of the NL pitching class, it would still be easy to list him first. Kershaw has excellent stuff that has maintained its effectiveness for years, but it's his superhuman K/BB ratio that truly sets him apart. Just passing age 30, he'll slow down at some point, but he's not showing any signs of decline yet.

3. Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) – A pure power pitcher who's just a small click behind Syndergaard, Strasburg has learned how to both dominate hitters and stay healthy. After arm trouble darkened his early years and his strikeout rate dipped while he was reportedly "pitching to contact" many analysts wondered if he would ever achieve his lofty expectations. They no longer question it.

4. Jose Fernandez (Marlins) – Fernandez rounds out an elite level of pitchers, as the top four on this list put a little gap between themselves and the excellent pitchers listed below. He made a huge and head-turning impression when he arrived, paid his dues with Tommy John surgery in 2014, and now at age and completely healthy, he's making his mark as one of the best.

5. Jake Arrieta (Cubs) – The prototypical "changes in latitudes" arm, blue-chip prospect Arrieta languished in the Orioles' system for several years before rising from the ashes following a trade to the Cubs. Initially there were many doubters, but now six years into his career with Chicago, it's difficult to justify a lack of faith in the guy who now routinely leads the team into playoff contention.

6. Matt Harvey (Mets) – The Mets are the first team to add a second pitcher to our list, and they have several success stories from which to choose. Harvey was once the top dog in the Mets' rotation, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in late 2013 and thoracic outlet surgery in 2016. He spent 2017 getting back to full strength, but that's behind him. Now he'll try to run down teammate Syndergaard.

7. Julio Urias (Dodgers) – He made a handful of starts in 2016, and he looked like a 19-year-old trying to find his way – albeit an incredibly talented 19-year-old. Growing, evolving, learning and maturing for the past two seasons, and now 21, he's ready to show the baseball world how far he has come. Urias gets off to a great start in 2018 and begins to add his name to the list of Dodgers' greats.

8. Lucas Giolito (Nationals) – Another big, big arm, Giolito also got his first taste in 2016, but he wasn't quite as polished as Urias. Injuries earlier in his career slowed his development somewhat, but once fully healthy, he tried to make up for lost time. His arm was never in question, but he needed to refine his secondary stuff and lock in his release point. Objectives completed.

9. Madison Bumgarner (Giants) – He just keeps doing what he does. He's not as flashy as most of the guys on this list, but the 28-year-old gives you 200-plus quality innings year after year after year. In 2018 he's again on pace for more than 200 innings, a 1.10 WHIP, an ERA of about 2.90, and about 200 strikeouts. The Giants' workhorse fits almost anywhere on the list. It's just what he does.

10. Jameson Taillon (Pirates) – Perhaps the most surprising name on the list, the finally healthy Taillon keeps impressing as he matures. In some ways he appears to be evolving into a right-handed version of Kershaw, simply pounding the strike zone with a wide variety of pitches he can throw in any count. He makes this list as his improving strikeout rate allows him to move into the top tier of pitchers.

11. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) – The undisputed graybeard of the list, at age 36 Wainwright is six years the senior of anyone else here. Many were ready to write him off when he got off to a rocky start in 2016, but just a few tweaks and adjustments later, he was back to an all-star status while proving good stuff is enough for an incredibly savvy pitcher. He might do this into his 40s.

12. Aaron Nola (Phillies) – It was hard choosing the last guy to be included. There are still a lot of quality arms who could stake a legitimate claim to a spot, but I decided to go with Nola whom I see as a workhorse who'll just quietly get better, start after start, inning after inning, and pitch after pitch.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Tampa Bay's Blake Snell was impressive in holding the Rockies off the board for six innings at Coors Field in his last start. He also logged a career-high nine strikeouts. Snell has excellent stuff, but he'll have to show better command (he needed 96 pitches to cover the six innings) to take the next step.

• The Dodgers (and fantasy owners) were hoping to get Clayton Kershaw back this weekend, but his back was still troublesome after his last throwing session so they shut him down until he is pain-free. There's a genuine hope that the shutdown period will be short, but there are no guarantees.

• I talked my way out of continuing to ride the Rick Porcello bandwagon, and he decided to capitalize on his always-noteworthy upside. He's the real deal, so I think he'll continue his useful production. He may not continue at his current 12-2 record pace, but he can maintain his considerably better peripherals.

• I'm interested in seeing how Homer Bailey looks when he returns to the Reds sometime in the next few days. The team doesn't currently need a fifth starter so they may initially deploy him in the bullpen. He'll soon be back in the rotation and has the stuff to be better than his career stats, if he can find some consistency.

• The A's would probably like to trade Rich Hill before the trading deadline, but blister issues are keeping him off the mound and probably dampening trade talks. I marvel at what he manages to do with his repertoire, and he could be a nice boost to a contender's rotation. Blisters or no, someone will take a chance.

• I had the opportunity to watch Phillies' farmhand Jake Thompson in his last start for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He's close. Sure, I'd like to see a bit better command, especially of his secondary stuff, but it was more a matter of inconsistency than lack of control. He just has to keep mistakes away from the middle of the plate.
  

In Boston, Craig Kimbrel is still out two to four more weeks, and now Koji Uehara has a pectoral injury, leaving Brad Ziegler the likely beneficiary of save chances. The Rockies are using Carlos Estevez as their closer, but Adam Ottavino is pitching himself back into shape after returning from the disabled list and could step in if Estevez stumbles. Daniel Hudson picked a horrible time to experience a lapse. He would have been the favorite for saves in Arizona, but Tyler Clippard likely passed him on the saves food chain. Clippard then imploded, which made the pecking order murky. Hudson is the better option. With Arodys Vizcaino falling from grace, look for young Mauricio Cabrera and Jim Johnson to possibly share the load for the Braves. Cabrera represents the upside and would be my choice to own. Brandon Maurer has posted ugly season stats but has pitched well lately. He's first call for saves in San Diego with Ryan Buchter the most likely backup plan. While save chances have been scarce for the Cardinals of late, it appears Seung Hwan Oh is established as their current closer.