The Z Files: Category Math

However, before that, let's talk briefly about what I have coined 'category math'. It's nothing new, just a cute little name for the process of going through the categories and objectively determining where you can gain and lose points in an effort to craft a stretch run strategy. Chances are if you're still reading baseball columns now, you're familiar with the process.

It's helpful to know what can logically be expected when examining the categories. To that end, we'll take a look at the top two monthly performers in each of the hitting counting categories. Looking at each month is admittedly an arbitrary cut-off. Perhaps it would be better to look at rolling 30-day slices of the season but we're not trying to improve projection theory, just ballpark the high end of what a player may do in September.

Considering we're looking at an extra couple of games in October, there should be a couple of sluggers that smack double-digit dingers down the stretch. It's interesting there are no repeat monthly leaders but that's more narrative than analysis. The majority of the hitters are established power guys, though surprises like Ryan Schimpf and presumed speedster Charlie Blackmon suggest there's a chance someone comes out of nowhere. To that end, Yasmany Tomas and Jedd Gyorko joined perennial sluggers Chris Davis, Ryan Braun, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado and Kris Bryant with 10 homers in August.

The bottom line is if only a couple of hitters will hit 11 or 12, a more reasonable high-end expectation for your best power sources is eight or nine and even that is pushing it since that projects to a 50-homer campaign over a full season. What we're looking at here is best-case scenario, not most likely outcome.

If one of the messages with the home run numbers is anyone can get hot and lead the league in homers for a month, the observation here is that the top speedsters are going to run month after month. Of course Hamilton is a bit freakish in this regard, as his 35 steals the past two months would land him third on the entire year behind only Villar and Marte. As is, he sits at 54 and you have to believe he's set 70 pilfers as a goal.

Looking at the two categories together, what this tells me is unless you're acquiring one of these speedsters, it's hard to make up a lot of ground in the category. If you're behind and already own Villar or Davis, you can't look at an eight-steal gap and figure "I have Rajai, I can make that up." You're eight behind with him, he's not going to snag 20 bases in September. On the other hand, someone who is expected to hit five or so homers can double that. There's no way of telling who that might be, but just knowing there's a better chance of a decent power hitter going on a power spree than a guy suddenly running may influence your lineup decisions.

Runs batted in and runs scored are displayed side-by-side to emphasize a couple of interesting differences. It's debatable if the following is actionable and not just a nifty observation but when you're fighting for every point, all information is useful.

When I initially generated the lists, I have to make sure I did it correctly since the top RBI production each month exceeded runs. My initial thought was since there are more runs scored than RBI, the leaders should reflect that. But then I realized everyone scores runs. Sure, it helps to score on a ball you hit yourself, but getting on base in a productive lineup is key. Not only are the totals lower with runs but there are a couple of repeat leaders, as compared to RBI where no one appears more than once.

Comparing the two here, the flatter nature of the runs category suggests optimizing playing time is the best way to make up ground. Granted this isn't ground-breaking advice unto itself, but if you manage your lineup to get a speedster active or perhaps replace a regular like Markakis with a platoon hitter like Scott Schebler looking for a couple more homers, beware of the collateral damage that may be done in the runs category.

Again, none of this is mind-blowing analysis but it's something I keep in mind when going through the category math without bias. Keeping expectations reasonable while being cognizant of the domino effects of moves can help you scheme in the most efficient manner.