Regan's Rumblings: Rising in May

Before we get to this week's piece, I wanted to comment on the Indians' decision Tuesday to call up top outfield prospect Bradley Zimmer. Zimmer was batting .294/.371/.532 for Triple-A Columbus with five home runs and nine stolen bases. Zimmer notched a total of 31 home runs and 82 steals the prior two minor league seasons, so the fantasy appeal of his skillset is pretty high. He's going to hit at the bottom of the lineup initially, but could move up if his production warrants it. It's easy to see him struggling initially given the strikeout rates he's put up in Triple-A the last two years (37.3% and 29.9%), but it seems like everyone is striking out a ton these days, so maybe he'll be able to work around the swings and misses to have good value. With Abraham Almonte (biceps) on the DL and sporting a .660 OPS, Zimmer could lock this job down for the balance of the year if he performs well with Almonte out. Given the strikeouts, that's no guarantee, but that shouldn't stop anyone from bidding 30-40% of their FAAB budgets.

Now that Ryan Zimmerman and Eric Thames have predictably cooled off after a blistering start, who are some guys that have seen their stock rise in May and what can we expect going forward?

Hunter Renfroe, OF, SD

Renfroe was handed a starting job out of spring training coming off a 34-homer season, but some early season struggles leave him at just .217/.273/.406 so far this year. For a guy who walked just 3.8% of the time a year ago, this isn't a huge surprise. Renfroe does have seven home runs this year while improving his BB% to 7.1%. The strikeouts have been the main issue (27.9% K%), but lately, Renfroe has shown some improvements. Since May 3, the outfielder is batting .243/.391/.486 with a whopping 19.6% BB% and marginally-improved 26.1% K%. He's still batting just .184 vs. RHP, but if the newfound plate discipline continues, that should start to trend up. I wouldn't expect more than .250 the rest of the way, but that should come with near 30-homer power.

Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL

.184/.262/.248 isn't quite what we had hoped for from the former #1 overall pick and ex-Diamondback, but Swanson is going to be just fine. I was starting to regret dealing Elvis Andrus for Swanson in a dynasty league to an owner that needed steals, but Swanson's recent efforts have me off the ledge. Since April 29, Swanson has hit .279/.389/.372. He walked in 16.7% of his PA's during that time versus just 5.7% pre-April 29. Amazing what happens to one's slash line when plate discipline improves. Swanson skipped Triple-A entirely, so he's still really learning on the job. I'm not expecting more than 10 homers and 10 steals at the end of the year, but that batting average will continue to rise quickly. Edit: Swanson was 2-for-4 with a home run Tuesday.

Ben Gamel, OF, SEA

I remember Mat Gamel, but I only had a vague recollection of Ben prior to his recent outburst. Gamel is batting .309 for the year and .327/.459/.490 this month, including an impressive 19.4% BB% that helps offset an elevated 27.4% K%. Gamel was the Triple-A International League player of the year with the Yankees organization last year after batting .308/.365/.420 with six home runs and 19 steals. With a skillset likened to Brett Gardner, the Yankees obviously felt he was expendable. Gamel will strike out a bit more than we would like, but he'll also get on base and hit between 12-15 home runs while stealing 20+ bases at his peak. He's yet to swipe a base in 83 plate appearances with the Mariners this year, but perhaps his OBP will get him closer to the top of the lineup soon, where the stolen base opportunities should be there with more frequency.

Tommy Joseph, 1B, PHI

He's hitting just .255 on the year, but Joseph is having a strong May - .400/.512/.886 with four homers in 43 plate appearances. His walks are way up for the month (16.3% BB%) and his K% is very reasonable at 20.9%. Joseph had a .248 ISO and 21 home runs in 315 big league at-bats in 2016, so the power isn't unexpected. What is surprising is the walk rate, a mark we really have no idea whether it can continue. If it does, that certainly bodes well for Joseph holding off top prospect Rhys Hoskins a bit longer. Hoskins is the team's top major league ready prospect, and given he's 24 and batting .336/.427/.639 in Triple-A right now. A Hoskins call up looks to be all but inevitable at some point this year, though no change is imminent.

Tommy Pham, OF, STL

Pham is having a great May, batting .371/.463/.743 with three homers and three steals in just 41 PA's. Pham is filling in for Stephen Piscotty, who should be in line to return from a hamstring injury later this week. That seems likely to sap Pham's fantasy value, but he could stick around as a fourth outfielder and play enough to have some NL-only value. Pham hit .226 last year, but showed good power with nine home runs in 183 PA's. He could find his way to 12-15 at-bats a month, even once Piscotty does return.

Jean Segura, SS, SEA

We've seen hot stretches from Segura plenty of times, but the one he has through the first half of May is impressive - .424/.477/.559. He's homered once, swiped two bases, and scored a whopping 13 runs. Segura missed time in April with a hamstring injury, but he's not forgotten how to hit. He will wind up with his usual 15+ homers, tough the swap in ballparks seems unlikely to get him to last year's 20 in Arizona. He should also reach 20+ steals for the fifth consecutive season and may even top last year's .319 batting average the way he's going.

Byron Buxton, OF, MIN

The man who has disappointed many a fantasy owner, including myself, is batting a paltry .173/.250/.25 5wtih a .231 wOBA and 38 wRC+. Those are bad, really bad. That said, since April 21, those numbers actually look somewhat presentable - .265/.357/.388 with a .331 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Better than league average at least. In that time he's also walked 12.5% of the time and struck out 25% of the time, numbers that from 4/3-4/20 looked really, really bad: 3.6% BB%, 47.3% K%. we had Buxton pegged for 17 homers and 27 steals this preseasons, numbers that are just 1 and 3 through mid-May, so while he's unlikely to fulfill our overall expectations this year, the recent results are encouraging. His defense is going to continue to keep him in the lineup through his struggles at the plate, and given his recent plate discipline successes, I remain optimistic.

Jeff Samardzija, SP, SF

With a 5.26 ERA, Samardzija isn't off to the best of starts, but there's plenty of reasons to think that ERA will continue to drop. Two good and one bad start this month have resulted in a 3.74 May ERA, but that's come with a 1.03 FIP thanks to zero walks and one home run in 21.2 innings. The numbers say he's been a bit unlucky. Overall for the year, Samardzija has an excellent 10.7 K/8 and 1.7 BB/9, numbers that far surpass last year's 7.4 and 2.4, a year in which he finished with a 3.81 ERA. He's still throwing hard with a 94.1 mph average fastball, so there's really no reason to think he won't put up an ERA in the mid-3's the rest of the way. Of course that could come with little run support, but he's going to be a solid SP3 in a lot of formats.

Alex Wood, SP, LAD

The first thing you notice watching Wood is his delivery. Saying it's "herky jerky" would be nice, as Wood looks to be all over the place, yet he's getting results. I'm not sure how he'll avoid another arm injury, but for now, he's locked in as a member of the rotation, even with guys starting to get healthy. In three May starts, Wood has a 29:3 K:BB in 16 innings, and for the year he has a 2.27 ERA, 12.1 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 in 35.2 innings. He's also allowed just one home run due in large part to a 3.2 GB/FB ratio. High strikeout totals have kept Wood from going too deep into games, but fantasy owners aren't complaining about his 4-0 W/L record and strong ratios. Injury or a breakdown in his mechanics are both future possibilities, but right now in that rotation, he's their second most reliable starter.

Jose Quintana, SP, CHW

It was only a matter of time, but Quintana has turned thing around and boosted his trade value back up. Over his last four starts, the southpaw has a 2.77 ERA after starting out 0-4 with a 6.17 ERA in his first four starts. Quintana's control has been off all year however, even recently with a 3.8 BB/9 in his last four starts and a 4.2 mark for the year. Last year his control was excellent with a 2.2 BB/9 and he's yet to post a mark worse than 2.8 in his career. For a guy who was such a model of consistency from 2013-2016, I'm highly confident the control will improve, but for now, at least we can enjoy the improved results in terms of W/L and ERA.

Rick Porcello, SP, BOS

Coming off a Cy Young season, some regression seemed inevitable for a guy without elite strikeout numbers, but I wasn't quite expecting a 7.56 ERA through three starts in which Porcello allowed a whopping 25 hits and five home runs in 15.2 innings. He's continued to allow too many long balls (one in each of his last four starts), but in his last five starts, Porcello has posted a 2.20 ERA and 34:5 K:BB in 32.2 innings, including zero walks in his last three starts. Red Sox Nation can breathe a sigh of relief while looking forward to the return next week of fellow Cy Young winner David Price (elbow). Porcello should be fine going forward, as his 8.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 compare favorably with last year's marks. He just needs to do a better job controlling the home runs.

Nathan Karns, SP, KC

I was in on Karns coming into this season, as with a 9.6 K/9 in 2016, I felt that if he could improve his control, he had a chance to take a big step forward. We may be seeing that now. For the year, Karns' K/9 has risen to 10.7 while his BB/9 is down from last year's 4.3 to 2.9 this year. Karns got off to a tough start this year, posting a 6.26 ERA through his first five appearances (four starts). In three starts this month though, Karns has gone 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 29:4 K:BB in 17.1 innings. He's posted back-to-back double-digit strikeout games. The strikeouts make Karns an appealing option in daily and seasonal leagues, though given the Royals offense is the worst in baseball (3.2 runs/game), wins could be hard to come by.

Jason Vargas, SP, KC

Okay, so Vargas has been good all year, but I couldn't resist a quick write up. Find me one person who believes his 1.01 ERA won't start decreasing dramatically and I'll say you've found me a liar. Vargas has a 0.92 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 to go with that sparkling ERA and he's had just one start in which he's allowed more than one earned run (three). A 2.0% HR/FB rate isn't going to be sustainable (his career average is 8.7%), but Vargas' hard hit rate is a solid 26.2% (down from 33.3% last year), so he's doing a good job keeping hitters off balance. His swinging strike rate sits at 12.5% which is well above his 8.4% career average and above this year's 10.2% league average. Bottom line? We all know a 1.01 ERA isn't going to continue, but seven starts for me is a big enough sample size to get me comfortable enough to say that he's made enough adjustments to post an ERA in the low-3's the rest of the way.