Regan's Rumblings: Replacing Trout

There's been lots of consternation around the unfortunate Mike Trout thumb injury this week. Eric Young Jr. was recalled from Triple-A to "replace" Trout on the roster, which has to be the biggest roster downgrade in MLB history. When Joc Pederson hit the DL earlier in the year, the Dodgers recalled one Cody Bellinger, so this says a lot about the state of the Angels' system at this point. It also left me wondering what Trout's fantasy trade value was with the news. If we assume he's out until early August (Trevor Story took three months to return from the same injury) at best, you're probably getting a month and a half of locked-in Trout this year. Clearly this does little to affect his dynasty league value, but in non-keeper and keeper leagues, what's his value?

Dynasty leagues where you're trying to win in 2017: I'd need both current and future elite help. Something like Aaron Judge and Yoan Moncada. I really have no idea whether that's too much or not enough, as I can't see myself EVER dealing Trout in a dynasty league barring something crazy.

Dynasty leagues where you're building for 2018 and beyond: Here I probably wouldn't deal, but what if a young player-rich team is making a run in 2017 and thinks Trout is back in six weeks and offers say Moncada, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Noah Syndergaard, and Brett Honeywell, you at least have to listen.

Seasonal/non-keeper leaguers making a run in 2017: I would need 2-3 All-Star (or close to it) players that could help me now.

Keeper league where you lose Trout say after 2018 due to an expired contract: Here even though you only get one-plus years of Trout, if Trout is locked in at a reasonable salary in your league, his value is sky-high. I'd need something like 2-to-3 young, cheap guys that are contributing now or who are elite prospects. I'd take Guerrero, Moncada, and Rafael Devers for Trout in this scenario.

Anyway, fun to speculate, but I've only traded Trout once in a league and it was to an Angels' fan in a dynasty league. My return was Bryce Harper, Cody Bellinger, and Brendan Rodgers, so I feel good about that one.

This week I wanted to talk about a few prospects. For this I will leverage the esteemed James Anderson's Top 400 List and talk about my favorite non-Top 100 prospects at each position.

Numbers in parentheses are positional rank / overall rank.

Catcher

Will Smith (LA – 11/234)

There's a bit of bias here as I got to see quite a bit of Smith on the minor league backfields at Camelback Ranch this spring. He's a small baby-faced guy, but he is putting up some interesting numbers as a 22-year-old in the High-A Cal league. Smith is down to .238/.377/.456 due to a prolonged slump, but 46% of his hits have gone for extra bases and he's sporting a strong 13.9% BB% and a reasonable 23.9% K%. Obviously we'd like to see the K's drop, but the walks and newfound power are interesting, particularly from the catcher position. Smith has also played some second base this year, so if here were to move off of catcher, I'd lose most/all of my interest in him as a prospect, but I don't see that happening any time soon. I do think he's athletic enough to stick at the position, and Smith has also shown that athleticism on the base paths, going 6-for-8 in SB attempts so far this season. He was the #32 overall pick in last year's draft.

First Base

Chris Shaw (SF – 10/149)

Cristian Arroyo is hitting just .190 and seems destined for another stint with Triple-A Sacramento, but I liked Shaw over Arroyo as a prospect prior to this season and certainly now. After batting .311/.390/.511 to start the season in Double-A, Shaw has already seen a promotion to Triple-A where he's already recorded four XBH and a .889 OPS in five games there. Shaw was the #31 overall pick in the 2015 draft and while last year's results were mixed, he did hit 21 home runs in 132 games. Shaw walks a decent amount and he fanned just 16.9% of the time in Double-A. Left-handed power bats in San Francisco have been known to fare well, so Shaw is an interesting guy to watch. Brandon Belt is signed to a long-term deal, but an easy solution would be to move Belt or Shaw to left field, move Eduardo Nunez back to third base, and give Arroyo more minor league seasoning. I think we'll see Shaw in San Francisco later this summer, and while he doesn't have the notoriety of some of the game's more elite prospects, he has the skillset to make an immediate impact.

Second Base

Max Moroff (PIT – 19/367)

The 24-year-old Moroff has already received a couple of cups of coffee, including earlier this month, but he's yet to stick. Moroff has hit .263/.383/.571 in Triple-A this season, including 13 home runs and three stolen bases in just 41 games. His .308 ISO represents a massive spike over the .119 he put up in Triple-A a year ago and it makes you wonder whether he's training buddies with Yonder Alonso. His K% is a bit elevated at 25.5%, but he's also walking in 16.5% of his PA's and with this sort of power, that's a perfectly reasonable strikeout rate. Moroff was thought of as a future utility guy prior to this season and he still may be just that, but I have to wonder whether the Pirates would be best-served trading David Freese, moving Josh Harrison to third base, and seeing what Moroff could so with regular big league at-bats.

Third Base

Ryan McMahon (COL – 10/124)

After entering 2017 as a top-50 prospect on most lists, McMahon is now on the outside looking in on the top-100 after an awful 2016 that saw him bat just .242/.325/.399 with just 12 home runs and a whopping 30.1% K% at Double-A. He's back at that level again this year, and the results are significantly improved - .322/.388/.531 with a 10% BB%, six homers, and seven stolen bases. Best of all? His K% has plummeted to 18.4%. McMahon is also seeing time at second base as the team looks to improve his versatility, perhaps in order to contribute initially as a utility player until a permanent role opens up. He's hitting just .159 versus LHP this year, but he hit same-sided pitching well in both 2014 and 2015, so the concern is minimal. There doesn't appear to be room at the big league level coming any time soon, but injuries could certainly accelerate McMahon's timetable, particularly if he keeps up his .900+ OPS.

Shortstop

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL – 14/114)

There is so much talent at this position at all levels, as in addition to the current MLB young starts like Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and Carlos Correa among others, six of the top 20 minor league prospects are shortstops. Mountcastle doesn't yet have the defensive chops to project as a solid defender at the big league level, but he's certainly hitting like an elite shortstop. At the High-A level, the 20-year-old former first-round pick (2015 - #36) is hitting a robust .332/.361/.592 with 11 home runs and three steals in just 196 at-bats. He's striking out a reasonable 17.8% of the time, with the only real concern being a 3.4% BB%, a number that's keeping him out of the top-100 at this point. There are only five MLB players with enough at-bats to quality for the batting title that sit that low with the walk rate, so to continue to move up the rankings, Mountcastle will need to progress with his plate discipline.

Outfield

DJ Peters (LAD – 46/163)

Peters' .254/.370/.458 slash line is fairly modest for the 21-year-old, but keep in mind that after hitting .351/.437/.615 in rookie ball last year, the Dodgers thought highly enough of his skillset to jump him right over Low-A to the High-A Cal league. Peters has a very elevated 34.6% K% for the year, likely the primary cause for his poor May (.208/.303/.385) after a hot April (.309/.441/.543). Peters stands 6'5", but in addition to the power, he can run a little as well. Whether he can start to plug some of the holes in his swing this year will go a long way to determining his ultimate future, but the tools are certainly there.

Dylan Cozens (PHI – 75/264)

A true three-outcomes poster child, Cozens either walked (61 BB), struck out (186 K), or homered (40 HR) in 49% of his 2016 plate appearances for Double-A Reading. He's ramped that up to 50% this year in batting .234/.299/.491 with 13 home runs and a 35.1% K% in 47 games for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. On the plus side, though his overall numbers this year are fairly mediocre, Cozens is batting .319/.375/.660 in May after a horrific April in which he had a .507 OPS. His May K% is much better at 26.9%, and though we need to see more of a sample size, perhaps he's made some significant strides over the past month. Even if he can hit .250 at the big league level, Cozens draws plenty of walks and he even swiped 21 bases last season. Ultimately he'll fall somewhere in between the production of Joey Gallo at the low end and Aaron Judge if we're really dreaming.

Jason Martin (HOU – 93/356)

The California League can certainly inflate offensive numbers, but 2016 was nonetheless a solid season for the 21-year-old Martin. Young for that level at age 20, Martin hit .270/.357/.533 with 23 homers and 20 stolen bases (but 12 CS) in 110 games. Bumped to Double-A this year, Martin has continued to hold his own with a .287/.354/.494 mark that includes seven home runs and nine stolen bases. His 10.1% BB% and 21.2% K% are both solid marks, and though he's predictably lost a little power with leaving the Cal league, he could still put up another 20/20 season this year. Martin is overshadowed by the guy next to him in right field, Kyle Tucker (RotoWire's #8 overall prospect), but he's young and a pretty good prospect in his own right.

Pitcher

Albert Abreu (NYY – 38/118)

Abreu has already been bumped from Low-A to High-A, and though the results at the higher level (4.50 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in 16 innings) aren't close to the 1.84 ERA he put up in 14.2 Low-A innings, that will change. Abreu is touching triple digits relatively frequently, and with a 36:11 K:BB in 30.2 innings, he's exhibiting top-of-the-rotation type stuff. Abreu has a 4.3 career BB/9 in 247 minor league innings, so if he wants to avoid a shift to the bullpen, he's going to need to improve his control. Even if that shift does happen, Abreu has the upside of an elite closer, though obviously that isn't happening in New York any time soon.

Dane Dunning (CHW – 63/177)

Dunning came over as "the other guy" in the Adam Eaton deal that also involved Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, but Dunning could wind up having the best career of that trio. Dunning blew through Low-A, allowing just one run in 26 innings with a 33:2 K:BB before being promoted a level. He's found High-A quite a bit more difficult with a 5.79 ERA in 14 innings with a 20:10 K:BB. That's quite a difference in terms of his control, so I'd probably just chalk this up to being an adjustment period. Dunning's fastball typically sits in the low-90s, so that may limit his ability to chalk up 200-strikeout seasons in the big leagues, but he does have a 10.1 K/9 for his brief minor league career and looks to at least be a low-ceiling (#3 SP) / high-floor sort of prospect.

Eric Lauer (SD – 105/293)

As a #25 overall pick with Petco Park as his future home park, Lauer should be on deeper league fantasy radars at this point. Lauer turns 22 later this week, so he's getting to be a bit old for High-A, but in 45.2 innings there so far this year, Lauer has a 1.97 ERA and 55:15 K:BB in 45.2 innings. The southpaw sits in the low 90s with his fastball, so he's going to need to tighten up his command a bit to be more than a back-end of the rotation starter in a couple of years. Hopefully the Padres push him to Double-A soon, but if Lauer can add a bit of muscle and build up his innings, I think he can add some velocity and perhaps outperform his current projection as a No. 4/5 starter.